The forces. Not the headlines.
Analysis and commentary on markets, companies, and the forces that move them.
Reading Market Turns With Leveraged Relative-Strength Ratios
A conventional relative-strength ratio compares two unrelated instruments. The LRS ratio compares same-source instruments that differ only in leverage — AAPL/TQQQ, TQQQ/QQQ — to read whether the market is rewarding leverage or punishing it.
How We Decide When to Do Nothing
Doing nothing is a decision — often the correct one — but it's rarely made on purpose. We think it deserves to be a real, deliberate choice rather than a default you drift into.
The Difference Between an Opinion and a Recommendation
We have views on markets, and we publish them. We do not tell anyone what to buy or sell. That line is one we draw on purpose.
Position Sizing as Risk Control, Not Conviction
Most people treat position size as a gauge of conviction — how much you believe in something. We treat it instead as a gauge of how much you could afford to lose if you're wrong.
Rebalancing: The Discipline Most People Skip
Rebalancing asks you to sell some of what's been winning and buy more of what's been losing. That's exactly why it works — and exactly why almost nobody actually does it.
What We Actually Mean by “Long-Term”
"Long-term" gets thrown around so loosely that it's nearly stopped meaning anything. When we use the phrase, we mean something specific by it, and the specificity is the whole point.
When Our Own Readings Disagree
Look at a market from more than one angle for long enough, and the angles will start to disagree. What matters is not the disagreement itself but how it gets handled.
Why We Prefer Rules to Forecasts
A forecast demands that you be right about what's coming. A rule only asks that you decide, ahead of time, how you'll react to whatever comes. The second is a far more realistic thing…