The forces. Not the headlines.
Analysis and commentary on markets, companies, and the forces that move them.
Software: Why Recurring Revenue Changed the Economics
Subscription models transformed software economics by converting one-off sales into recurring revenue, changing how the businesses are built, funded, and understood.
Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals: Patents, Pipelines and Patience
The pharmaceutical sector is structured around patent exclusivity, long and uncertain development, and the cliff that arrives when protection expires.
Financials: How Banks Actually Make Money
Banks earn primarily on the spread between what they pay for funds and what they earn lending them. This structure, combined with leverage and reliance on confidence, defines the sector's risks.
Energy: The Commodity Cycle That Drives Everything
Energy companies sell a commodity at a price determined by global supply and demand, which makes their earnings volatile and their capital decisions structurally difficult.
Consumer Staples and Discretionary: The Defensive Divide
Consumer staples and discretionary businesses differ fundamentally in how their demand responds to economic conditions, which shapes their stability, growth, and pricing power.
Utilities: Regulated Returns and Rate Sensitivity
Utility economics are shaped by regulation that permits a defined return on invested capital, producing stability, limited growth, and pronounced sensitivity to interest rates.
Real Estate: Rates, Rents and the Role of Leverage
Real estate economics are driven by rental income, financing costs, and leverage. The interaction of these three, particularly the sensitivity to interest rates, defines the sector's behaviour.
How We Decide When to Do Nothing
Doing nothing is a decision — often the correct one — but it's rarely made on purpose. We think it deserves to be a real, deliberate choice rather than a default you drift into.
The Difference Between an Opinion and a Recommendation
We have views on markets, and we publish them. We do not tell anyone what to buy or sell. That line is one we draw on purpose.
Position Sizing as Risk Control, Not Conviction
Most people treat position size as a gauge of conviction — how much you believe in something. We treat it instead as a gauge of how much you could afford to lose if you're wrong.
Rebalancing: The Discipline Most People Skip
Rebalancing asks you to sell some of what's been winning and buy more of what's been losing. That's exactly why it works — and exactly why almost nobody actually does it.
What We Actually Mean by “Long-Term”
"Long-term" gets thrown around so loosely that it's nearly stopped meaning anything. When we use the phrase, we mean something specific by it, and the specificity is the whole point.
When Our Own Readings Disagree
Look at a market from more than one angle for long enough, and the angles will start to disagree. What matters is not the disagreement itself but how it gets handled.
Why We Prefer Rules to Forecasts
A forecast demands that you be right about what's coming. A rule only asks that you decide, ahead of time, how you'll react to whatever comes. The second is a far more realistic thing…
How Central-Bank Rate Decisions Ripple Into Your Portfolio
A rate change is one number, but it ripples through bond prices, growth-stock valuations, currencies and borrowing costs. A guide to the plumbing — and why understanding it beats forecasting the Fed.
Home Bias: Why Most Investors Underweight Most of the World
Investors everywhere hold overwhelmingly domestic stocks — often 80–90%+ — even when their home market is a sliver of global value. Why home bias happens, and what global exposure does and doesn't do.
GPUs, HBM, and the Bridge Between Them: Mapping the Advanced Packaging Chokepoint
Why advanced packaging — the process that fuses GPU dies to their HBM stacks — may be the tightest and least discussed constraint in the entire AI hardware supply chain.
Why HBM May Decide the Next Decade of AI Chips More Than the GPU Does
Why high-bandwidth memory, not the GPU itself, has become the binding constraint on AI hardware supply — and what would actually have to change for that to shift.
NVIDIA, TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung: Mapping the True Center of Gravity in the AI Semiconductor Race
A structural map of the four companies that anchor the AI hardware buildout — NVIDIA, TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung — and the physical bottlenecks that actually gate AI chip supply.